Insights
Market reports, forecast data, industry insights, and more from iEmergent.
When we last looked at the Denver market, we were looking at how 2024 was forecasted to shape up. Now that we’re in Q4, let’s look ahead to 2025 using our latest updated forecast. Where will the loans be? To what borrowers?
The Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO, CBSA (heretofore referred to as the Denver market) includes 1,180,016 households and has a homeownership rate of 64.3%. How do those demographics break down into mortgages? Here’s a look at our 2025 forecast:
As we’re seeing on the national level, loan volume will be down a bit but with a higher average loan size, leading to a slight increase in total purchase dollars for 2025 over 2024.
Here’s our census tract-level forecast data for 2025 purchase dollars in the Denver market visualized:
While looking at national mortgage forecast numbers is interesting and relevant, there is no uniform U.S. mortgage market. There are 84,414 census tracts and 387 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) that make up the U.S.—and each one is unique. We forecast mortgage opportunity at the census tract level where lenders can use that data to make localized decisions.
Since 2010, iEmergent’s forecast has outperformed most predictive analytics from other industries, maintaining an accuracy rate of over 90%, and is backed by a money-back accuracy guarantee*. You can read more about our forecasts here.
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The Denver market is expected to grow significantly over the next five years. iEmergent’s Mortgage Velocity Index (MVI) compares a market’s rate of growth in loans over the next five years, compared to the growth rate of the overall U.S. market.
An MVI of 1 means a market is growing on pace with national market growth, so a 1.58 MVI means Denver is growing at a faster rate than the overall U.S. market.
Right now, for Black and Hispanic households in the Denver market, the homeownership gap is stark.
Homeownership Rates
The overall minority homeownership rate is just 51.7%—more than 12 percentage points lower than the overall homeownership rate.
But it doesn’t have to stay that way. Lenders can use data to reach underserved borrowers by using data to:
That’s more than $1.3 billion in NEW opportunity just to diverse borrowers.
With interest rates dropping and other economic factors discussed in our latest forecast update, we’re already seeing an increase in refi activity and expect this trajectory to continue into 2025.
Here we can see the geographic distribution of forecasted refinance loans in the Denver market in 2025 by census tract.
Using this data as well as our new daily real estate listings, lenders can pinpoint opportunity in their markets and build strategic approaches for closing more loans.
Imagine having this data (and more!) for your markets. What kind of strategies could you plan? How would the rest of your 2024 look different? How could you start planning for 2025?
Forward-looking data—combined with historic, current data, and innovating analysis tools—set lenders apart. If you want to grow, let’s talk. Schedule a Demo
All maps and data in this email are from iEmergent’s proprietary forecasts and Mortgage MarketSmart’s suite of market intelligence tools.
*Generally accepted minimum accuracy standards for predictive analytics: 70%.