Insights
Market reports, forecast data, industry insights, and more from iEmergent.
Nestled in the desert of southern Nevada, Sin City boasts grand casinos, fine dining, exciting entertainment, and a thriving nightlife. Looking ahead at 2025, the Las Vegas market is also full of promise for mortgage and real estate professionals. Let’s dive into the market to see what’s in store. Where will the loans be? What borrowers will they serve?
While looking at national mortgage forecast numbers is interesting and relevant, there is no uniform U.S. mortgage market. There are 84,414 census tracts, 925 core-based statistical areas (CBSAs), and 387 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) that make up the United States, and each one is unique. We forecast mortgage opportunities at the census-tract level so that lenders can use the data to make localized decisions.
Since 2010, iEmergent’s forecast has outperformed most predictive analytics from other industry sources, has maintained an accuracy rate of over 90%, and is backed by a money-back accuracy guarantee. You can read more about our forecasts here.
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The Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV, CBSA (hereafter referred to as the Las Vegas market) has an overall homeownership rate of 56.2% and includes 832,367 households. But what new opportunities await? Take a look at our 2025 forecast:
There are 33,141 purchase loans and 15 billion in purchase dollars available in the market in 2025. Those purchase dollars are not evenly distributed across the Las Vegas market, and lenders need to pinpoint the areas of high opportunity to build effective lending strategies. Let’s take a look at where they are concentrated. Here’s our census tract-level forecast for the Las Vegas market visualized:
As you can see, the areas with the most available purchase dollars are concentrated on the west side of the city. This is where lenders will find the most opportunities. However, with an average loan size of $452,972, even the darkest blue tracts offer value, holding up to $15.9 million in available purchase dollars.
The Las Vegas market is expected to grow significantly over the next five years. Our Mortgage Velocity Index (MVI) compares a market’s expected rate of growth in loans to the expected growth rate of the overall U.S. market.
An MVI of 1 means a market is growing on pace with national growth. With a 1.99 MVI, Las Vegas is growing at a much faster rate than the overall U.S. market.
The Black homeownership rate in Las Vegas is currently 24.4 percentage points below the overall market homeownership rate, one of the largest gaps among the markets we’ve analyzed. Homeownership Rates
The Opportunity: Lending to Diverse Borrowers
Lending to diverse markets doesn’t come at the cost of the bottom line. It’s not altruistic—it’s good business. From 2023 to 2026, there’s a forecasted $2.4 billion in NEW opportunity among Asian, Hispanic, and Black borrowers in the Las Vegas Market—a 50.2% increase.
Imagine having this data (and more!) for your markets. What kind of strategies could you plan? How would the rest of your 2024 look different? How could you start planning for 2025?
Forward-looking data—combined with historic data, current data, and innovative analysis tools—set lenders apart. If you want to grow, let’s talk. Schedule a Demo
All maps and data in this email are from iEmergent’s proprietary forecasts and Mortgage MarketSmart’s suite of market intelligence tools.
*Generally accepted minimum accuracy standards for predictive analytics: 70%.