Insights
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Everything is bigger in Texas, and that includes the mortgage market in Dallas-Fort Worth. Cranes and new high-rises are reshaping the downtown and suburban skylines, reflecting a region in constant expansion. As corporate hubs grow and new developments push outward, DFW’s real estate market continues to transform. But as home prices rise and demographics shift, who’s getting a piece of the pie—and who’s being left behind? Let’s dive into the trends shaping the mortgage market and uncover where lenders can make the biggest impact in 2025.
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The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX CBSA (hereafter referred to as the Dallas or DFW market) is made up of 11 counties and is one of the fastest-growing markets in the United States. It’s also one of the most diverse CBSAs in the country, with a 57.2% Black, Indigenous, and People of Color (BIPOC) population.
Of the 1,704 census tracts in the Dallas CBSA, 978 (or 57.4%) are majority minority census tracts (MMCT). For comparison, that’s on par with Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV (54.8% MMCT) and Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA (56.1% MMCT). It’s well below Las Vegas–Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV (67.3% MMCT) and Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA (74.7% MMCT). But it’s well above Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ (36.1% MMCT) and Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA (31.3% MMCT).
The market’s population was 7.6 million at the 2020 Census and grew to 8.1 million in 2023. In that same period, households grew from 2.8 million to 3.1 million. The DFW market has 2.8 million households and a homeownership rate of 59.9%.
Dallas continues to experience significant growth, outpacing the national market. The region’s population and household count have steadily increased, creating a strong demand for homeownership. iEmergent’s Mortgage Velocity Index (MVI) places Dallas above the national average, indicating a continued appetite for mortgage lending. While home prices are rising, creating larger loan sizes, the number of purchase loans remains steady, marking a shift in affordability dynamics rather than transaction volume.
When we last analyzed the Dallas market in 2023, the forecast projected a rapid increase in Asian homebuyer activity, particularly in northern suburbs like Denton and McKinney. That trend continues in 2025, but new data shows that Black homeownership remains stagnant, while Hispanic lending is seeing steady but moderate growth. This evolving landscape highlights the importance of staying ahead of shifting borrower demographics. Additionally, our 2023 report highlighted a strong MVI of 2.91, which indicated an aggressive growth trajectory at the time.
Dallas’s MVI is now 1.40 in 2025, reflecting a more moderate but still above-average growth pace. This adjustment signals that while demand remains strong, lenders should focus on strategic borrower outreach to sustain momentum in an evolving market.
Compared to other major metros we’ve analyzed recently, Dallas is outpacing all but Denver, Washington, DC, and Las Vegas for growth. In fact with an MVI of 1.40, Dallas is growing more than twice as fast as Los Angeles.
While looking at national mortgage forecast numbers is interesting and relevant, there is no uniform U.S. mortgage market. The United States has 84,414 census tracts, 925 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs), and 393 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), and each one is unique. We forecast mortgage opportunities at the census tract level, allowing lenders to use that data to make localized decisions.
Since 2010, iEmergent’s forecast has outperformed most models designed to predict U.S. mortgage originations, maintaining an accuracy rate of over 90%. It’s even backed by a money-back accuracy guarantee.
From 2023 to 2026, total dollar originations for purchase loans in Dallas are forecast to grow $10.97 billion, a 27% increase. However, purchase loan counts will remain relatively steady, increasing from 103,391 in 2023 to 107,464 in 2026—just a 4% increase. This gap is mainly due to rising home prices, which means fewer but larger loans will be originated.
We project close to 102,000 purchase loan originations in 2025. An average loan size exceeding $468,000 translates to more than $47 billion in total purchase loan volume for the year.
Our 2025 forecast, mapped at the county and census tract levels, identifies concentrated mortgage opportunity areas. Bright red and orange highlight key growth zones along a central corridor extending north through the CBSA.
By County: By Census Tract:
Like the rest of the country, Dallas is set to experience an increase in refinancing as interest rates improve. From 2023 to 2026, refinance originations in Dallas are forecast to nearly triple, with minority borrowers making up approximately 30% of the market’s total refinance volume.
In 2023, lenders were primarily focused on purchase originations, as refi opportunities were limited. Now, with rates shifting, lenders can expand into refinancing while focusing on first-time homebuyers and underserved borrower segments.
Dallas is one of the most diverse metro areas in the country, yet homeownership rates remain uneven across racial and ethnic groups.
Geographically, lending patterns show distinct trends. While loans to Hispanic borrowers are spread throughout Dallas, loans to Black and Asian borrowers follow distinct geographic patterns. Asian homeownership is on par with the overall market rate at 63.0%, while Black homeownership lags at 38.7%, highlighting the need for targeted lending initiatives.
The stark gap in Black homeownership—21.2 percentage points below the overall market rate and 30.5 points below the Hispanic homeownership rate—makes a strong case for a people-based Special Purpose Credit Program (SPCP). These programs could help by offering more flexible approval criteria for Black applicants who meet income qualifications but lack strong credit histories due to systemic inequities.
A place-based SPCP could also assist Low-to-Moderate-Income (LMI) borrowers in Dallas. However, data shows that LMI lending and diverse lending do not always overlap. Some areas with high Black homeownership demand are not in CRA-eligible tracts, while some CRA tracts see minimal lending to Black borrowers. Understanding these patterns is critical for lenders designing programs that make the most impact.
While loans to Hispanic borrowers are spread throughout the Dallas market, loans to Black and Asian borrowers follow distinct geographic patterns:
2025 forecast for purchase loans to Asian borrowers in Dallas
2025 forecast for purchase loans to Black borrowers in Dallas
However, while LMI and diverse lending often overlap, they are different. The geographies where Black borrowers purchase homes do not always align with CRA-eligible census tracts, and vice versa.
Census tracts designated as LMI/CRA-eligible, which account for 35.2% of tracts in the market:
LMI/CRA-eligible census tracts in Dallas as of 2025
Comparing these maps, we can identify critical mismatches:
This geographic disconnect demonstrates why LMI lending and diverse lending require different strategies and datasets. A place-based SPCP tailored to LMI borrowers could help close the homeownership gap, ensuring lenders maximize impact and opportunity in the right areas. Lending to low-to-moderate-income (LMI) borrowers in Dallas is projected to remain relatively stable from 2023 to 2026, with a $318 million increase in dollar volume despite a decline of 1,000 loan units. This pattern reflects the rising cost of homeownership—loan amounts are increasing while the number of actual loans is slightly declining.
Using data is imperative to crafting effective lending strategies. In some markets, Asian borrowers may require expanded lending programs, but in Dallas, Black homeownership has fallen far behind and needs targeted support.
It’s not a zero-sum game—the goal is to increase Black homeownership rates by expanding the total market, not redistributing it. Knowing where to focus to drive meaningful impact is key to long-term, sustainable lending growth.
Lenders looking to grow in Dallas should focus on expanding access to homeownership for renters already living in the community. Compared to our 2023 analysis, which emphasized an influx of new market entrants, the largest opportunity now lies in converting existing renters into first-time homebuyers.
By leveraging localized data, lenders can:
Unlock the power of data to drive smarter lending decisions and expand your market reach. Let’s connect and explore how iEmergent can help you stay ahead in 2025 and beyond.