The Atlantic City Mortgage Growth Forecast

FHA lending is a prime area of opportunity in an otherwise slow-growing market

A Look Ahead at Atlantic City Lending

This month, the coast is calling us to the Las Vegas of the East. Let’s find some live music, take a walk along the oldest boardwalk in the country, and place our bets on what’s in store for Atlantic City’s mortgage market through the remainder of 2024.

The Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ, core-based statistical area (hereafter referred to as the Atlantic City market) includes 106,640 households and has a homeownership rate of 67.9%. Our 2024 forecast breaks down the demographics to help lenders identify specific areas of opportunity. Take a look:

Here’s our geographic breakdown of the census tract-level forecast data for 2024 purchase dollars in the Atlantic City market:

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Market Growth

The Atlantic City market is expected to grow over the next five years—just not very quickly. By comparing a market’s rate of growth in loans over the next five years to the growth rate of the overall U.S. market, iEmergent gives each market a score on the Mortgage Velocity Index (MVI). An MVI of 1 means a market is growing on pace with national market growth.

With a 0.46 MVI, Atlantic City is growing at a lower rate than the overall U.S. market - but that doesn’t mean there aren’t hidden gems of opportunity for lenders to uncover.

Diverse Lending

Right now, for Black and Hispanic households in the Atlantic City market, the homeownership gap is stark.

Homeownership Rates

• Overall: 67.9%
• Black: 42.1%
• Hispanic: 41.5%
• Asian: 78.5%

The combined minority homeownership rate is more than 18 percentage points behind the overall homeownership rate at just 49.2%. But it doesn’t have to stay that way. Lenders can use data to reach underserved borrowers by using data to:

• Inform new products 
• Build special purpose credit programs (SPCPs)
• Find relevant referral partners
• Engage with community centers of influence
• And more

Here’s some good news for Atlantic City: loan dollars to diverse borrowers are expected to grow 17.6% from last year through 2026.

Let’s take a closer look at where those extra loan dollars are coming into play:

Loan Dollars - Black Borrowers

Loan Dollars - Hispanic Borrowers


Loan Dollars - Asian Borrowers

FHA Lending

Atlantic City will also see significant growth in FHA loans over the next three years. These are expected to grow 10% from 2023 to 2026.

Digging deeper, we can see that these loans are growing outside of the market’s highest-volume census tracts. Compare the map below to the total purchase dollar map at the top to see how the opportunity zones for all loans differ from those for FHA loans specifically.

Put Data and Insights to Work

Imagine having this data (and more!) for your markets. What kind of strategies could you plan? How would your 2024 look different? 

We just released our three-year forecast, which has outperformed other notable industry forecasts in accuracy for the last two decades. Forward-looking data—combined with historic data, current data, and innovative analysis tools—sets lenders apart. We would love to see exactly what Mortgage MarketSmart can do for you. If you want to grow in 2024, get on our calendar today.

All maps and data in this email are from iEmergent’s proprietary forecasts and Mortgage MarketSmart’s suite of market intelligence tools.

Generally accepted minimum accuracy standards for predictive analytics: 70%.