Insights
Market reports, forecast data, industry insights, and more from iEmergent.
We’re jetting off to Orlando, the city of many names: The City Beautiful, The Phenomenal City, and the City of Light. This year, Orlando has also made a name for itself as one of the hottest housing markets in the United States, with Zillow and Realtor.com both ranking the city among its top 10. Let’s dive into the market to see what’s in store for the remainder of 2024, and take a peek at how it compares to last year’s forecast. The Orlando market is demonstrating clear growth, giving mortgage lenders the chance to accelerate.
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The Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL core-based statistical area (CBSA), hereafter referred to as the Orlando market, includes 948,499 households and has a homeownership rate of 62.9%. How do those demographics play out in terms of mortgage origination opportunity? Here’s a look at our latest 2024 forecast:
Our forecast has improved significantly since we last highlighted this market in September 2023:
2023 actual originations outpaced our original forecast, likely contributing to this shift and pushing the 2024 forecast upward.
Here’s our visualized census tract-level forecast data of 2024 purchase dollars in the Orlando market:
iEmergent’s Mortgage Velocity Index (MVI) compares a market’s rate of growth in loans over the next five years, compared to the growth rate of the overall U.S. market. An MVI of 1 means a market is growing on pace with national market growth.
We give the Orlando market an MVI of 0.66. This means it is expected to grow, but at a slower rate than the overall U.S. market. However, since Orlando’s 2023 MVI was 0.25, our new MVI of 0.66 reflects an improved 5-year outlook.
Currently, the homeownership gap for Black and Hispanic households in the Orlando market is stark.
Homeownership Rates
The overall minority homeownership rate is just 53.1%. That’s less than 10 percentage points lower than the overall homeownership rate, where we’ve seen 15+% gaps in some other markets.
But Orlando can do better, and iEmergent is eager to help. Lenders can use data to reach underserved borrowers by using data to:
Our 2024 forecast for minority lending in Orlando, as a percentage of all purchase dollars, has increased slightly compared to our 2023 forecast. Most of that growth is in Hispanic share, which increased nearly three percentage points, and Black dollars, which increased by just under one percentage point. The share of White purchase dollars decreased and Asian share decreased slightly.
We can also break down a market by loan type, as well as by race and ethnicity. In Orlando, the most interesting opportunity is found in FHA and VA loans.
In Orlando, FHA and VA loans combined make up nearly 27% of all 2024 loans. That percentage is much higher than in large markets like Los Angeles, New York, and Chicago. They are also higher than in similar-sized markets to Orlando such as Nashville and Austin. But the market is far from saturated. In fact, we have identified distinct pockets of opportunity for FHA loans in Orlando:
2024 FHA Loan Dollars by Census Tract
While looking at national mortgage forecast numbers is interesting and relevant, there is no uniform U.S. mortgage market. There are 84,414 census tracts and 387 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) that make up the U.S.—and each one is unique. We forecast mortgage opportunity at the census tract level where lenders can use that data to make localized decisions.
Since 2010, iEmergent’s forecast has outperformed most predictive analytics from other industries, maintaining an accuracy rate of over 90%, and is backed by a money-back accuracy guarantee*. You can read more about our forecasts here.
Imagine having this data (and more!) for your markets. What kind of strategies could you plan? How would the rest of your 2024 look different? How could you start planning for 2025?
Forward-looking data—combined with historic, current data, and innovating analysis tools—set lenders apart. If you want to grow, let’s talk.
All maps and data in this email are from iEmergent’s proprietary forecasts and Mortgage MarketSmart’s suite of market intelligence tools.
*Generally accepted minimum accuracy standards for predictive analytics: 70%.