The 2024 Denver Mortgage Growth Forecast

This month, we climbed a mile above sea level for The Mortgage Collaborative’s conference. The Mile High City delivers an experience to remember with award-winning dining, unparalleled views, easy access to the Rocky Mountains, and stunning architecture. Speaking of architecture, let’s dive into Denver to see what’s in store for the remainder of 2024. Which borrowers will get mortgages, and where?

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About Market-level Mortgage Opportunity Forecasts

While looking at national mortgage forecast numbers is interesting and relevant, there is no uniform U.S. mortgage market. There are 84,414 census tracts and 387 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) that make up the U.S.—and each one is unique. We forecast mortgage opportunity at the census tract level where lenders can use that data to make localized decisions.

Since 2010, iEmergent’s forecast has outperformed most predictive analytics from other industries, maintaining an accuracy rate of over 90%, and is backed by a money-back accuracy guarantee*. You can read more about our forecasts here.

Denver market expected to grow significantly over the next 5 years

The Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO, CBSA, henceforth referred to as the Denver market, includes 1,180,016 households and has a homeownership rate of 64.3%. How do those demographics break down into mortgage opportunities for lenders? Take a look at our 2024 forecast:

And consider our census tract-level forecast data for 2024 purchase dollars in the Denver market, visualized on a map:

Diverse Lending

For Black and Hispanic households in the Denver market, right now the homeownership gap is stark.

Homeownership Rates

• Overall: 64.3%
• Black: 41.5%
• Hispanic: 51.5%
• Asian: 64.6%

The overall minority homeownership rate is just 51.7%—more than 12 percentage points lower than the overall homeownership rate. 

Lenders in Denver are missing untapped opportunities when they fail to connect with these borrowers, but it doesn’t have to stay that way. Lenders can use data to reach underserved borrowers by using data to:

• Inform new products 
• Build special purpose credit programs (SPCPs)
• Find relevant referral partners
• Engage with community centers of influence
• And more

There is some good news for Denver. Loan dollars to diverse borrowers are expected to grow more than 30% from last year through 2026. That’s almost $1.5 billion in NEW market opportunities just to diverse borrowers.

 

Here’s the geographic breakdown of where to look for loans to diverse borrowers, according to our market forecast. Notice the correlation with our forecast of 2024 purchase dollars from the beginning of this market analysis:

Loan Dollars - Black Borrowers

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Loan Dollars - Hispanic Borrowers

Loan Dollars - Asian Borrowers

Put Data and Insights to Work

Imagine having this data (and more!) for your markets. What kind of strategies could you plan? How would the rest of your 2024 look different? How could you start planning for 2025?

Forward-looking data—combined with historic, current data, and innovating analysis tools—set lenders apart. If you want to grow, let’s talk.
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All maps and data in this email are from iEmergent’s proprietary forecasts and Mortgage MarketSmart’s suite of market intelligence tools.

*Generally accepted minimum accuracy standards for predictive analytics: 70%.